Trumps Triple Crown

Can He Complete The Last Leg?

For those of you who aren’t sports lovers, a Triple Crown is a term for a baseball player who leads his league in home runs, runs batted in and batting average or a horse who wins the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes. It’s a rare feat in both sports and over the last hundred years only 13 horses and 10 baseball players (2 won it twice - Roger Hornsby and Ted Williams) have managed it. Has Donald Trump embarked on the equivalent of a strategic Triple Crown? There is an argument to be made that he has and instead of batting titles or horse races it is eliminating enemies of the U.S.

Miguel Cabrera the last winner of the baseball Triple Crown

Love him or hate him one cannot but be amazed at the chutzpah of Donald Trump in going after the enemies of the U.S. These moves are reminiscent of Michael Corleone in the Godfather settling family scores. Let’s have a look.

Moe Green gets whacked

Last year’s imposition of tariffs and talk of annexing Greenland now seems small beer compared to what has happen so far this year. 2026 was only a few days old when the first leg of this strategic triple crown was completed with the capture and removal of Nicolas Maduro from power in Venezuela. This accomplished several things. It reopened the Venezuelan oil fields to American firms, was a blow to Chinese influence in the Western hemisphere and hurt the cartels using the country as a drug trans-shipment point. With Venezuela subdued, the move for the next leg of the triple crown could happen.

Cuba has been a thorn in the side of the U.S. for over 65 years. The socialist policies enacted by the Castro brothers and their successor Miguel Diaz-Canel have left the economy in shambles. The country is wholly dependent on cheap imports of Venezuelan oil to fuel its power sector. With Trump cutting those off, the country has no ability to generate power leaving the economy and regime on the verge of collapse. Canel has announced that he is in talks with the U.S. about changes in the government to get the oil flowing again. While this has not yet fully played out, it is easy to envision that Marco Rubio will fulfill his childhood dreams and become President of Cuba.

Cuban President Rubio

The final leg of Trumps Triple Crown is Iran. Like in horse racing and baseball, this last part is the most difficult to achieve. The final leg in horse racing is winning the Belmont Stakes which is by far the longest and last of the three races. In baseball the most difficult part is winning the batting title. Hitting home runs and driving in runs are feats of strength, having the highest batting average is a skill not many power hitters have. Subduing Iran is proving just as difficult.

Iran has been another thorn in the side of the U.S. Since the rise of Ayatollah Khomeni in 1979, Iran has fueled chaos across the Mid-East. From kidnapping the staff of the American Embassy in Tehran to funding Hamas and Hezbollah, it has been the biggest source of instability in the region. Whether it was as close to building nuclear weapons as claimed is a moot point. Without doubt it has spent years pursuing them despite the objections of the international community. This threat once again prompted the U.S. and Israel to once take action to end this threat once and for all. How will this conflict play out?

The biggest obstacle is now reopening the Straits of Hormuz which must happen by the end of March unless the oilfields of the Saudi, Iraq, Kuwait and the other local producers start being shut down. Shutting a producing oilfield has major ramifications for its health and seriously degrades it. With the oil flow turned off the countries of the Gulf have little cash flow and this is decimating their economies. The weakness in gold prices and stocks is a sign that these countries are selling liquid assets to fund themselves. This selling can only intensify and spill over into U.S. Treasuries and broader assets if the closure continues much longer and could very well trigger a global financial crisis. Short of the current government falling, which seems unlikely, the only way to reopen this maritime choke point is seizing it. The U.S. is putting the pieces in place for a ground incursion to do just this and also capture the Iranian oil export facility on Kharg Island and territory around the Straits. These include:

• The 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) with 2,500 troops on the USS Tripoli amphibious warship is en route with arrived around March 25th. In addition to the Marines, the Tripoli has F35B’s, Osprey transport aircraft and Viper and Venom attack helicopters. Accompanying this warship are the USS San Diego and USS San Antonio transport docks for landing craft, vehicles and Marines.

• A-10 Warthog ground assault aircraft and Apache attack helicopters recently moved into the Gulf. These planes are ideal for ground support of troops.

• While not yet in theatre, it is likely that the 82nd Airborne would also be used. A scheduled training exercise has been canceled which has fueled rumors of the 82nds involvement.

This brings the Israeli attack on the Pars oilfield into focus. It is unknown why this strike was launched as oil infrastructure had been considered by both sides off limits. This prompted the Iranians to launch a strike on the Qatari LNG facility at Ras Laffan which caused major damage. This drew the ire of all the Gulf countries and likely evaporated any remaining goodwill towards Iran. Trump distant himself from the Israeli attack and claimed no U.S. knowledge of it. But was it done to draw the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) into the war? It is in their best interest to see the Straits open so having their participation in any incursion would not only lessen the burden on the U.S. but give it much more firepower. The Saudi airforce alone has over 380 F-15s and other combat aircraft. This Iranian attack along with other strikes on civilian targets provides the GCC the justification to join the war. Any occupation of Kharg Island and Iranian territory around the Straits would be much simpler with GCC involvement.

Assuming the incursion to open the Straits is a success the aftermath will be interesting. The continued loss of revenue from oil exports will cripple the ability of the Iranian government to fund the war. Combined with continued attacks on military, security installations and personal, the IRGC or whoever else currently yields power in Iran would not last long. It would undoubtedly be bloody but the Iran that emerged would not be the disruptor it has historically been creating the opportunity for a real and lasting peace in the Mid-East. This would give the American government the opportunity to cut back its support of the Israeli government which would benefit both countries. Lastly, the world would be awash in oil with prices falling to $40-50 range per barrel.

If Iran falls the world will be fundamentally reshaped and a triumphant Trump would rightly be able to complete a historic achievement and claim a strategic Triple Crown. Let’s hope he’s successful.

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